Sunday, 1 April 2012

1:35 Doncaster April 1st

John "Milton" Keyes
Analysed my first race of the year last night. It was a Class 5, 0-70, amateur-riders race over 12f on good ground. I saw eight horses with significant chances and they filled the first five and six of the first seven. I am not sure if this is a good think as this early in the season I like to use the John Maynard Keynes line:
When the facts change, I change my mind. 
Perhaps, with so much more all-weather racing than when I last followed horse racing. the early season is less of a minefield as to which horses will be fit.

The result can be found here. Analysis is after the jump.

Ladies Best was top weight and was a Class-2 handicapper in his day but the comment 'Always in rear, behind final 3f' tells me that he has lost his love for the racing.

Arizona John won well and I had him marked as solid Class 4 when he does not get caught up in the pace. I think they may have gone too fast up front but this was a low enough grade and he was not affected by it. More to come from him.

Edgeworth is a consistent performer and I have him as a Class 5 place horse off a bit lower. Race ran to suit him.

Zaplamation goes well in the spring but usually needs a run. Therefore, I am very encouraged by his third.

White Diamond finished 7l back of third. I have him as a 10f GF and don't trust the time he received a 78 TS. He might be able to dominate a weak Class 5 over 11/12f. His fourth tells me nothing about his stamina but the horse I think will give the answer to that is Kodicil. I have him as a Class 5 winner off a bit lower so his performance was disappointing. However, if they went a bit fast up front, he should bounce back from this.

Pitkin, who has only one race over further than 7f, finished fifth. There may have been a 'second' race that favoured those with speed as the outsider Merjanah has a similar profile.

Jeer had won the race off a pound higher last year. He then went off the boil before a good run at Wolverhampton in February. This was a disappointing result but the 8yo may just be an inferior horse now.

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