Saturday, 15 September 2012

NFL Week 1 Review - 49ers @ Packers

My preview:
49ers +5 @ Packers: The packers were by far the best team last season. San Francisco are a massive candidate for regression according to all the leading indicators of such things (fumble recovery, Pythagorean, record in close games).

Take the Packers
Not a good job at all by me - lazy. The niners regression theme had been harped on about all summer. Fans are getting smarter all the time. What had been overlooked is that the Packers also over performed last year. Still a very good team as they showed against the Bears but essentially every 15-1 has over performed.

This was actually a nightmare match up for the Packers they gave up the most yards last year and San Francisco had a record number of field goals. This is the type of offence that their defence will have the least affect on.

I do want to go back and look at Packers SuperBowl-winning offence. They barely made the playoffs that year because their offence would have no-shows. I have no concrete theory on why this is but it is probably related to their weak offensive line and poor running game.

My gut instinct would be to against SF next as there can be little value in backing them after a performance like this. Then I heard about circadian rhythms. Over the last 25 years the West-coast team has covered the spread in 70% of night games. Against this Detroit is in the Central time zone and their offence is coming off a disappointing performance against an underrated Rams' defence. When the niners went against the Saints in the playoffs - the offence I feel is most comparable to the Saints - they were very lucky. Tehy recovered five fumbles to the Saint one, and that one was with 17 seconds left in the half and the Saints did not get a score out of it. This looks like a play on Detroit over 20.

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