Friday, 14 September 2012

NFL Week 1 Review - Rams @ Lions

I am going to fully quote the week 1 article:
Rams +9 @ Lions: I fully expect the Lions to implode at some point. Tipperary's performance in the All-Ireland SF is another example of how ra-ra management does not work against organised teams. I do think now is the best time for the Lions to have this match-up as it is the healthiest they will be all season. In a dome, at home, against inexperienced opposition. When I am giving nine I feel that you should expect your team to win the game even if they concede a touchdown first. The Lions offence comes all day when it gets on top.

Take the overs.

Update: I agree with the above logic but having seen the Lions' injuries on defence I am switching to the over 45.5.
Got lucky with the change of prediction and I felt as if I got lucky with the result. On second thoughts this went over despite a goal-line pick by the Rams. Stafford threw three similar interception where I think he may have underestimated the Rams defence. I now think that Cortland Finnegan has been underrated because of his on-field antics - whereas normally such players are overrated. Janoris Jenkins also looks like a find at corner. It is very rare for a team to be able to improve at more than one cornerback slot. The Rams' defence may continue to be underrated and for this reason I am forgiving the Detroit offence.

Next up for the Rams is the Redskins and I would expect the under on Washington points because of an OR to RGIII and UR to the Rams' defence.

Next up for Detroit is the 49'ers. Since I am forgiving the offence this game and the niners could not have looked better it seems like the Detroit offence is the play.

 I do think the key in that game will be the SF OL against eh Detroit DL. Two highly-rated units and I do not know which is better. One thing I have noticed about the NFL is that when two premium units match up the one that wind disproportionally affects the outcome of the game. I think this is because teams game plan around their strength. When this fails their gameplan is left in tatters.

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