Friday, 14 September 2012

NFL Week 1 Review - Bills @ Jets

My preview:
Bills +2.5 @ Jets: The gut instinct here is that there can be no value in where they set overs (38.5). Everything is pointing in the direction of the under: Buffalo's big splash on Mario Williams, the Jets offensive woes in the preseason, and the Jets' great defence. Firstly the Jets gave up more points than the Patriots last season. Buffalo's defence could take time to gel and gave up the most points in the AFC last year. I feel like the Jets are being looked doen on by people for having two overrated QB's but they can only put one of them on the field.

Take the overs.
This was the Facebook IPO of betting. When all logic* points to one side then take the other.

* Maybe common sense si a better word.

One thing I have heard a few times is that Mario Williams is a sack guy but not a pressure guy. Meaning he delivers when he gets in but he is not a guy who wins the battle and interferes with the QB incessantly. To me this would indicate a physical freak with poor technique. Opponents are mostly out-leveraging him but when he wins he really wins.

The general consensus on Ryan Fitzpatrick is that he telegraphed his throws by staring down his receivers. Firstly I want to know if this is fixable. That would greatly affect my view on the Bills' offence in their next game. Secondly this would be a negative strike either way on the Jets.

I am pessimistic on the Jets' offence in their next game. A lot of their offence came from a defensive TD, a special teams Td and they garnered great field position from those telegraphed interceptions. The only upside left is Tim Tebow and they seemed to achieve their upside in most situations - hello Jeremy Kerly.Next up for them is a Pittsburgh defence that will have at least Ryan Clark and possibly James Harrison returning. The Steelers defence has a lot of upside as Peyton Manning has always torched Dick LeBeau's otherwise-stellar defences.

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