Friday, 14 September 2012

NFL Week 1 Review - Colts @ Bears

My preview:
Colts +10 @ Bears: I feel confident about taking the Colts here because of Andrew Luck. Rookie QBs have been producing for several years now and Luck has looked like the best of them. This is an opportunity to back against people that underestimate how steep the Pyramid Of Talent is. Yes the colts are a horrible otherwise but just because Cutler is back does not mean we get the Bears in the form they were in when he went down last season.

Take the Colts
This was looking good early. Bears' first drive:

  1. Chicago Bears at 15:00
  2. 1-P.McAfee kicks 67 yards from IND 35 to CHI -2. 23-D.Hester to CHI 16 for 18 yards (55-J.Hickman).
  3. 1-10-CHI 16(14:56) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 4 for -12 yards (98-R.Mathis).
  4. 2-22-CHI 4(14:22) PENALTY on CHI-72-G.Carimi, False Start, 2 yards, enforced at CHI 4 - No Play.
  5. 2-24-CHI 2(14:01) 22-M.Forte left guard to CHI 5 for 3 yards (21-J.King; 58-M.Fokou).
  6. 3-21-CHI 5(13:21) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 17-A.Jeffery.
  7. 4-21-CHI 5(13:15) (Punt formation) 8-A.Podlesh punts 45 yards to 50, Center-65-P.Mannelly, fair catch by 15-L.Brazill.

Bears' second drive

  1. Chicago Bears at 11:28
  2. 1-10-CHI 3(11:28) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 22-M.Forte INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Freeman at CHI 4. 50-J.Freeman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Bears opened with eight in completions and then Dwight Freeney went out and things turned around for them. I feel as if the probability of success on a pass play graphs like a hockey stick. To a certain point there is very little probability that any receiver is open and the graph rises steadily. After that point it soon becomes likely that multiple receivers are open and the graph rises quickly. I think the Freeney injury pushed the Bears from the horizontal to the vertical point on the graph.

I think the Bears are set to be bullies this year. I really like there defence and think any effect of the Urlacher decline will be overrated. Any team that can get on top of their offensive line will cause their offence trouble because Cutler still tries to throw it into tiny windows - sometimes even with little pressure. When they face either weak defensive lines or weak secondaries I expect them them to shine.

I don't know what to do with the Colts now. I still expect Luck to be very good this season as this is probably the toughest task he will face - excepting possibly Houston away. He now goes home and to a dome. Is the Vikings' defence still poor? I also want to go against there defence if Freeney is less than 100%. I think I will know a lot more about the Colts and Vikings after week 2 just as I do about the Bears and Packers.

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