Fun With Physics

In Game 2 of the World Series Detroit pitcher Doug Fister was struck in the head with a line drive. The ball hit his head and flew into the outfield. People on Twitter feared an injury similar to the one suffered by Oakland pitcher Brandon McCarthy*, right. However the next day the news reports quoted doctors that said the ball travelling as far as the outfield was a good thing.

* His Twitter avatar from shortly after the hit

Horses are weight-bearing creatures. Humans have used them for their speed  whilst carrying weigh over short distances for millennia. Why  then does the handicapper expect a pound mass to make a difference in a handicap race?

Just for fun, why did the kitten fall  off the roof?

Offensive Power Rankings

Offensive Power Rankings:

Don't put stock in rankings within groups.

1: Vacant - not ready to put anyone here

2 (1-4): Ravens - higher on their offence and lower on their defence than most. Patriots - kind of want to forgive them for the Hernandez injury but can't put them first.  Packers - no running game and worries about offensive line but best QB Saints - still not ready to give up on them.

3 (5-10): Giants - similar to Packers but inferior QB. Falcons - if I believed in their running game I would move them up. Julio Jones is outstanding. Houston - most balanced offence; Andre Johnson pust them above the 49ers. Detroit - another team with no running game. Bears - get an offensive line. Cowboys - worries about the interior line

4 (11-18): Broncos  - worries about the offensive line in no huddle on the road? Eagles - closest to dropping out if Vick does not start showing stuff. Steelers - classic Big Ben against the Jets but can it continue. Redskins - mostly owing to RGIII. Chargers - not the playmakers of old but still a Rivers fan. Panthers - Emergence of LaFell could push them higher. 49ers but Smith has looked good so far. Cinncinati - need more from Dalton, BJGE has looked good - probably the line.

5 (19-25):  Bucs - big-play VJ Jets - back to earth this week but not without intrigue. Bills - Fitzpatrick hampering an otherwise competent offence.  Seahawks, Colts, Miami - improvement from rookie QB's could see them climb. Chiefs - can't think of anything to say. Raiders - Palmer has surpassed my expectations for him. It is time to cut him some slack.

6 (26-29): Vikings, Jags, Browns, Rams - young QBs in similar situations. Richardson moved the Browns up to here.

7 : Cardinals - poor Fitzgerald. Titans - where have you gone Chris Johnson? I still like Locker

Away Goals Rule: YOLO!

I saw a tweet on Sunday evening linking to an NPR article titled 'New Teen Buzzword: Yolo'. I had seen the word recently when a young wrapper died moments after tweeting the following:

Drunk af going 120 drifting corners #FuckIt YOLO

Some wise commentator pointed out  that the phrase could equally be 'you only die once'.

This reminded of the Away Goals rule. Often after a team has a 1-0 away victory I have heard someone say that they have a crucial/vital/important away goal. The away goals rule means that in an event of a tie after two legs the team with the most away goals advances. Of course since it is a tie that means they must have scored fewer home goals - maths! Furthermore they have conceded fewer home goals but conceded more away goals.

I propose the Away Goals Conceded rule. I don't see many people pointing out that a team that loses 1-0 away from home has conceded the vital away goal.

NFL Week 2

All-Ireland and lottery-draw winning relatives kind of  got in the way this weekend.

Going to try an experiment with h'cap, o/u, and home and away o/u. Ranking each according to preference. That will give me more to think about afterwards but also because I was so keen to get away from the spread when there is no reason to.

Bucs +7 @ Giants: Giants / Overs / Giants D / Giants O (Does this even make sense?)

Houston - 7 @ Jags: Houston / Houston O / Overs / Jags O

Vikings - 3 @ Colts: Overs / Vikings O / Colts O / Colts

Saints -2.5 @ Carolina: Saints / Saints O / Overs / Saints D

Chiefs +3 @ Bills: Bills / Bills D / Unders / Chiefs D

Cardinals -13.5 @ Pats: Pats D / Pats / Pats O / Under

Ravens +2.5 @ Eagles: Unders / Eagles D / Eagles O / Eagles

Cleveland +7 @ Cinncinati: Cinnci O / Cinnci / Browns O / Overs

Raiders - 2 @ Miami: Miami D / Miami / Under / Raiders D

Dallas - 3 @ Seattle: Dallas D / Dallas / Dallas O / Under

Redskins -3.5 @ St. Louis: Washington D / Under / Rams D / Rams

Jets -5.5 @ Steelers: Steelers / Steelers D / Steelers O / Under

Titans + 6.5 @ San Diego: Chargers / Overs / Chargers O / Titans O

Lions @ 49ers: Overs / Niners / Niners O / Detroit O

Broncos @ Falcons: Broncos / Overs / Broncos O / Falcons O

NFL Week 1 Review - Steelers @ Broncos

My Preview:

Steelers + 1 @ Broncos: Well, this is 11 points better than they were getting in the playoffs. I think this is a no-brainer given the uncertainty aboutPeyton Manning. Yes, the Broncos have a good defensive line going against a moderate offensive line but Ben has been in this situation before and excelled.

Take the Steelers

Why didn't I check the reports on how manning played in the pre-season?

Broncos defensive line could be very good. Derek Wolfe looks to have been a good draft pick. Getting pressure on Matt Ryan will be key in the next game and I really like the odds of the Broncos' defence keeping the Falcons in check.

Manning looked very good despite having lost a few mph on his fastball. Atlanta has lost cornerback Brent Grimes for the season. There was talk that the Falcons needed three corners for their defensive scheme to succeed - hence the Samuel signing. They now face Manning in a dome, down a top-class corner, and with Manning's no-huddle looking as effective as ever.

The Steelers were obviously without Clark for this game but they will not be getting all their defensive players back against the Jets - Harrison at least is out. The Jets offence will surely be over rated so I am very high on the Steelers defence this week.

I would also be high on the Steelers' offence - especially with Revis out - if I knew they would play to their strength, an explosive passing game. One thing that has me worried is the Steelers bragging about how they finally acquired a full-back. Forget about being old-school Steelers, ground-and-pound, go long!

NFL Week 1 Review - Bucs @ Panthers

My preview:

Panthers -1 @ Buccaneers  I think the Bucs could be a mini San Fran from last year because of the coaching upgrade. They have added some stars via free agency and were a lucky 11-win team two seasons ago. I think the key will be the return of Josh Freeman to being an average (or even slightly above) QB.

Take the Bucs

Good stuff from the Bucs. Odd that the worst run defence from last year held one of the elite rushing offences to just 10 yards. Perhaps Carolina coaches have made too much of an effort to make Cam a pocket passer and he was the main reason their rushing offence was so effective.

Not impressed with Freeman at all. By the sounds of it he had a lot of time to pass and he did not do much. I am still going to hold both these teams in the middle of the pack.

I am very confident for New Orleans against Carolina but I am not sure how the game will go. I am high on the NO offence and defence and down on the Carolina defence - and lukewarm on their offence. This could be a low-scoring or high-scoring game from my perspective.

If the Bucs were at home to the Giant I would be very confident in the Giants. The Giants constantly under perform at home but I think there has been two much of an over reaction to the Cowboys game. I think the play here is the Giants defence. The Giants are very thin in the secondary but Freeman hardly excelled when unmolested against Carolina - how will he cope when the Giants' defensive line may simply overwhelm his young offensive line.

NFL Week 1 Review - Seahawks @ Cardinals

My preview:

Seahawks -1 @ Cardinals: I really liked the Seahawks for the NFC West this year but how can there be any value left with them after all the Russell Wilson hype. The Cardinals QB situation is similar to the Jets in that they can only put one mediocre QB on the field. After the Bye last season the Cardinals went 6-4 losing 32-20 vs Steelers, 27-30 @ Ravens, 7-23 @ 49'ers and 16-23 @ Bengals. A lot of their wins involved Patrick Peterson pre-eminent punt performance but the Seahawks record away from Safeco Field tips me towards the Cardinals.

Take the Cardinals.

Firstly I have reviewed the Seahawks' performance and think their home/away performance discrepancy is overblown. Look to take advantage of that going forward.

The Cardinals' defence dominated throughout even though they gave up 13 points in the second half. Seattle scored a touchdown on a short field after an 83-yd kick-off return from Leon Washington and two field goals on three-and-outs - one following an interception and one following a 50-yd punt return from Washington.

As good as their defence is though I am backing the Pats offence as the best unit in the NFL. The 13.5 line is a large one but the Pats have the facing an East-coast team at 1pm thing.

The Seahawks face the Cowboys, who I am generally high on. When Murray is fit I think the Cowboys have an explosive offence and I am intrigued to see how much their improvement at corner will improve their defence - no faith in DC Roby Ryan though. Now that I am not a fan of the Seahawks' home form the Cowboys look like an easy play.

NFL Week 1 Review - 49ers @ Packers

My preview:

49ers +5 @ Packers: The packers were by far the best team last season. San Francisco are a massive candidate for regression according to all the leading indicators of such things (fumble recovery, Pythagorean, record in close games).

Take the Packers

Not a good job at all by me - lazy. The niners regression theme had been harped on about all summer. Fans are getting smarter all the time. What had been overlooked is that the Packers also over performed last year. Still a very good team as they showed against the Bears but essentially every 15-1 has over performed.

This was actually a nightmare match up for the Packers they gave up the most yards last year and San Francisco had a record number of field goals. This is the type of offence that their defence will have the least affect on.

I do want to go back and look at Packers SuperBowl-winning offence. They barely made the playoffs that year because their offence would have no-shows. I have no concrete theory on why this is but it is probably related to their weak offensive line and poor running game.

My gut instinct would be to against SF next as there can be little value in backing them after a performance like this. Then I heard about circadian rhythms. Over the last 25 years the West-coast team has covered the spread in 70% of night games. Against this Detroit is in the Central time zone and their offence is coming off a disappointing performance against an underrated Rams' defence. When the niners went against the Saints in the playoffs - the offence I feel is most comparable to the Saints - they were very lucky. Tehy recovered five fumbles to the Saint one, and that one was with 17 seconds left in the half and the Saints did not get a score out of it. This looks like a play on Detroit over 20.

NFL Week 1 Review - Houston @ Dolphins

My preview:

Dolphins +12.5 @ Texans: I would like to know the ATS of teams who featured on Hard Knocks in their season opener. I would guess that good teams are too highly rated while a team like the Dolphins would be over rated. The Dolphins were excellent in the second half of last season. If they went with Moore I would be even more confident. Houston have to deal with an offseason of expectation and you cannot claim a large improvement for Schaub since they did not drop off significantly without him. Can the defence and the offensive line continue at such dominant levels?

Take the Dolphins

This game illustrates how hard it is to cover the NFL. You look at the box score and see Foster* with two touchdowns, Schaub with a clean game, and, of course, the final scoreline and you could easily buy into the pre-game narrative.

* Take out the 14-yd and 2-yd touchdown runs that people will see in the game highlights and he was 24-63yd

During the game, however, there were a few comments on Twitter about the Dolphins' lines dominating. Their defence held up until the offence imploded in the second quarter. The first Houston drive ended with a missed 52-yd field goal, the second was a three and the third stalled at midfield. Then came Tannehill.

The first of his interceptions was brought back to the 14 and an unnecessary-roughness penalty compounded the error. Still the defence held. Houston finished the drive at the 20. The second interception started a run of three turnovers in three plays from Miami and Houston converted each into touchdowns. It is hard to forgive Tannehill from for this given the preconceptions about him but remember:

1. He will regress
2. People are extra down on him because of where he was drafted. I mean look how poorly Gabbert and Ponder did when over drafted. Lets see how he plays before we bury him.

JJ Watt tipped two passes ot the line that caused interceptions and claimed he learned the snap count from watching "Hard Knocks". This is nonsense. You can hear the snap count on all game tape. Watt has gotten a lot of tips since he came into the league. Tannehill just got caught out by how good he was.

Houston faces Jacksonville and the latter would appear to be the play there. Oakland at Miami is a more complex affair. I want to be on both these teams. I am hoping people forgive Oakland's back-up long snapper - after all The Onion did warn us! Oakland do have a good pass defence but I think Miami should be able to run on them and Carson Palmer's dink and dunk will not work on Miami's defence.

NFL Week 1 Review - Colts @ Bears

My preview:

Colts +10 @ Bears: I feel confident about taking the Colts here because of Andrew Luck. Rookie QBs have been producing for several years now and Luck has looked like the best of them. This is an opportunity to back against people that underestimate how steep the Pyramid Of Talent is. Yes the colts are a horrible otherwise but just because Cutler is back does not mean we get the Bears in the form they were in when he went down last season.

Take the Colts

This was looking good early. Bears' first drive:

1. Chicago Bears at 15:00
2. 1-P.McAfee kicks 67 yards from IND 35 to CHI -2. 23-D.Hester to CHI 16 for 18 yards (55-J.Hickman).
3. 1-10-CHI 16(14:56) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 4 for -12 yards (98-R.Mathis).
4. 2-22-CHI 4(14:22) PENALTY on CHI-72-G.Carimi, False Start, 2 yards, enforced at CHI 4 - No Play.
5. 2-24-CHI 2(14:01) 22-M.Forte left guard to CHI 5 for 3 yards (21-J.King; 58-M.Fokou).
6. 3-21-CHI 5(13:21) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 17-A.Jeffery.
7. 4-21-CHI 5(13:15) (Punt formation) 8-A.Podlesh punts 45 yards to 50, Center-65-P.Mannelly, fair catch by 15-L.Brazill.

Bears' second drive

2. Chicago Bears at 11:28
3. 1-10-CHI 3(11:28) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 22-M.Forte INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Freeman at CHI 4. 50-J.Freeman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Bears opened with eight in completions and then Dwight Freeney went out and things turned around for them. I feel as if the probability of success on a pass play graphs like a hockey stick. To a certain point there is very little probability that any receiver is open and the graph rises steadily. After that point it soon becomes likely that multiple receivers are open and the graph rises quickly. I think the Freeney injury pushed the Bears from the horizontal to the vertical point on the graph.

I think the Bears are set to be bullies this year. I really like there defence and think any effect of the Urlacher decline will be overrated. Any team that can get on top of their offensive line will cause their offence trouble because Cutler still tries to throw it into tiny windows - sometimes even with little pressure. When they face either weak defensive lines or weak secondaries I expect them them to shine.

I don't know what to do with the Colts now. I still expect Luck to be very good this season as this is probably the toughest task he will face - excepting possibly Houston away. He now goes home and to a dome. Is the Vikings' defence still poor? I also want to go against there defence if Freeney is less than 100%. I think I will know a lot more about the Colts and Vikings after week 2 just as I do about the Bears and Packers.

NFL Week 1 Review - Redskins @ Saints

My preview:

Redskins + 9 @ Saints: This is the game I feel least comfortable talking about. I have ignored every article on the Saint in the offseason.

Clearly I meant the Saints rather than anything to do with Roger Moore or Val Kilmer.

This was the shock of the week. RGIII looked excellent - I think the second half was delayed while he was inducted into Canton. What I liked the most was that they trusted him. With just over six minutes they started a drive on their own 20 up by eight. Many teams run two plays* and hope to get lucky and if not will throw on third down. On first down they let him throw and he got the first down. He also threw, with less success, on the next two plays - technically he was sacked on the second. Still I was impressed with Washington's decision throughout.

* Maybe that happens more often in the four-minute drill.

One decision I did not agree with was when NO got to within 9 with 2:25 left. Thy took the extra point to make it a one possession game and kicked it deep. It is a very common and very short-sighted decision. You almost certainly need to make a two-point conversion. Taking the extra point defers this and ostensibly keeps you in the game. If you succeed on the two-point conversion you are clearly in better shape. If you fail on it you now know that you need two more possessions and will go for an onside kick. Don't let fear be your master.

There has been a lot of talk about the effect of coaching. Some in the game have said that it should not have a big effect on NO. Their reasoning, which appeals to me, is that he has been there for so long that he has his coaches and his culture installed and instilled respectively. This is opposed to when a good coach replaces a bad coach and has to retrain the players. I really like NO going forward but I must remember that they are a far superior team at the Superdome - last year I thought that playing them in the Superdome was the toughest fixture in the NFL.

Because I am still high on the New Orlean's offence, I also like the Skins defence. They conceded 32 points but this included a touchdown from a blocked punt and two touchdowns on fourth down. In fact I like both defence in the Skins' next game as well as some regression from RGIII.

NFL Week 1 Review - Jags @ Vikings

My preview:

Jaguars +3.5 @ Vikings: I think the Jags were the better team last year. I have heard good reports about Gabbert and am willing to put him ahead of Ponder - with Webb better than either of them. I expect the Jags to get more out of MJD than the Vikings get out of Peterson.

Take the Jags

Feel like I got lucky with this one. Peterson scored two touchdowns but was he really that good? From a medical standpoint it was a miracle.

Delighted with Gabbert for what should have been a game-winning drive.

Randomness of kickers highlighted when the big-money Scobee misses an XP and rookie 6th-rounder Blair Walsh has one of the great kicking games.

People have been on Gabbert for the no-hope fourth-down play in OT which makes we want to side with them against the Texans this weekend. because last impressions are more important than the first. also expect MJD to continue to improve.

NFL Week 1 Review - Patriots @ Titans

My preview:

Patriots -4.5 @ Titans: I am glad that this line has moved towards the Titans. There are concerns about the Patriots O-Line but I think they are more depth concerns. The offence did not look great in pre-season but Welker is back now and they have so many options once they go no huddle. On defence they were middle of the pack and finally look to have hit in the draft on the defensive line with Chandler Jones. I hope I am not overlooking the Titans who people seem to have forgotten were in contention for a playoff spot last season and Jake Locker has impressed me when I have seen them but this appears to be a very-strong Patriot's team.

Take the Pats.

One of my favourite sites to follow is coldhardfootballfatcs.com. I feel as if they have their heart in the right place when it comes to quantitive analysis without the technique to be dangerous. One example would be be their attempt to better judge the value of field goal kickers where the kicker received negative points for making a field goal inside 25 yards.

On Tuesday I noticed they were offering a deal to join Spreadapaedia, which I had not heard of but is a database of all results against the spread. I followed Spreadapaedia to Twitter and I was delighted with what I found - it is the perfect representaion of information without knowledge. For this game they were offering this nugget:

Super Bowl losers, opening up on the road in week 1 are 3-14 ATS, 4-13 game record, with the last ATS win coming in 1989.

Which may seem viable to some but tracking spreads over the long term goes against the core of successful gambling. Here I can suggest that since people have been running out the SuperBowl runner-up's curse for a while the perception has changed. The real problem is to have not looked at what the Patriots have been doing.

Last year the Pats made a surprise run at the SuperBowl. This then caused people to look back on their dratf. What had been a draft for the future was now looked on as a missed opportunity to supplement a SuperBowl team. The pats selected the high-upside project LT Solder in the first round and an injury-prone CB Dowling in the second. Either of those picks could have helped last year but did not.

The key to last year's draft was the 2nd and 3rd round picks of RB's Vereen and Ridley. Neither of those picks was expected to contribute much last year. This is because pass protection is a key element of a Patriot's running back's job. They knew there was no upside to keeping BJGE so they took two upside picks to give them a year's training before they became key cogs in their offensive machine.

For the Titans I continue to be impressed with Locker and it is a shame that he was injured. On the other hand since they next play the Chargers it gives me a guilt-free play on the Chargers.

NFL Week 1 Review - Falcons @ Chiefs

My preview:

Falcons -1 @ Chiefs: I find this hard to rectify with all the hype surrounding the Falcons for the Superbowl*. I'm not ready to forgive the Chiefs for last year and I don't think people are presuming that Jamaal Charles will be the same player he was before the injury. Maybe I am not giving them enough credit for the Arrowhead effect because of the 41-0 home drubbing against the Bills last season. I did forgive them their first two losses last season because they lost a superstar early in each.

* I do agree with the strategy of picking a medium-priced teams for the Superbowl. Health at the end of the seasons and luck are such big factors at the end.

Take the Falcons.

Firstly, Jamaal Charles, the easiest runner that I have ever seen, looked as good as ever. Apparently this was obvious in the pre-season - I pay no attention to the pre-season.

Easy win for the Falcons over a depleted Chiefs' defence*. I want to be on Julio Jones side but I do think people realise how much of an affect he has had on the Atlanta offence. I don't think I can get behind the Atlanta offence until I effectively gauge the efficacy of Michael Turner.

* Getting sick of all these nicknames that end in 's' so that I have to put the comma at the end.

The big news for Atlanta is the loss of Brent Grimes for the season. Atlanta had to make key decisions on which defensive stars to keep in the off-season and chose Grimes over LB Curtis Lofton who absconded to the division-rivals Saints. The injury was obviously unfortunate but Atlanta kept pointing out over the off-season that their defensive scheme necessitated three good CB's - hence the over-trumpeting of the signing of Ahsnate Samuel. Whither now there defence as the impressive Peyton Manning comes to town?

The Chiefs have the more favourable .task as they now get to face the Bills in Buffalo. My unanswered questions are as follows:

• What is the Buffalo home effect?]
• Tamba Hali is a great player but will he be seen at full effectiveness on his return?
• How many other key players will be returning for the Chiefs?
• Will Jamaal Charles ever be given the lion's share of the carries?
• Can C.J. Spiller be that good again?

NFL Week 1 Review - Bills @ Jets

My preview:

Bills +2.5 @ Jets: The gut instinct here is that there can be no value in where they set overs (38.5). Everything is pointing in the direction of the under: Buffalo's big splash on Mario Williams, the Jets offensive woes in the preseason, and the Jets' great defence. Firstly the Jets gave up more points than the Patriots last season. Buffalo's defence could take time to gel and gave up the most points in the AFC last year. I feel like the Jets are being looked doen on by people for having two overrated QB's but they can only put one of them on the field.

Take the overs.

This was the Facebook IPO of betting. When all logic* points to one side then take the other.

* Maybe common sense si a better word.

One thing I have heard a few times is that Mario Williams is a sack guy but not a pressure guy. Meaning he delivers when he gets in but he is not a guy who wins the battle and interferes with the QB incessantly. To me this would indicate a physical freak with poor technique. Opponents are mostly out-leveraging him but when he wins he really wins.

The general consensus on Ryan Fitzpatrick is that he telegraphed his throws by staring down his receivers. Firstly I want to know if this is fixable. That would greatly affect my view on the Bills' offence in their next game. Secondly this would be a negative strike either way on the Jets.

I am pessimistic on the Jets' offence in their next game. A lot of their offence came from a defensive TD, a special teams Td and they garnered great field position from those telegraphed interceptions. The only upside left is Tim Tebow and they seemed to achieve their upside in most situations - hello Jeremy Kerly.Next up for them is a Pittsburgh defence that will have at least Ryan Clark and possibly James Harrison returning. The Steelers defence has a lot of upside as Peyton Manning has always torched Dick LeBeau's otherwise-stellar defences.

NFL Week 1 Review - Eagles @ Browns

My preview:

Eagles -9.5 @ Cleveland: My initial reaction was that I do not want to back against either of these teams. I thought the Eagle's situation was a mess last year but they have a history of strong coaching before that. I see the Eagles as being similar to a team that have massively upgraded their coach  Also the Cleveland situation has been over hyped with a strong overreaction to the Brandon Weeden pick. Then I remembered there that we have a rookie QB going against a strong defensive line. This is a positive when taking large points as you are as likely to increase your lead in the fourth quarter as give away a garbage time score because the opposition must now play into your strength and their weakness. I was wary because 10-point defeats at home do not feel that common to me but the Browns gave up two of them in their first three home games last year. This was an aberration as they finished fourth in PA last season but they are without Phil Taylor and All-World Joe Haden for this one.

Take the Eagles but back Cleveland's defence when Taylor and Haden return.One interesting note is that you have one of the worst at coach's challenges in Reid and replacement refs.

This feels like a win to me - how good was Joe Haden? I missed that Haden had received a stay of execution on his suspension for taking Adderall. If I had known that I would have been taking the Browns. Haden had a better rookie season than Darrell Revis before having a relative sophmore slump. I feel that a corner who can take away half the field has always been valued but as the game has become more pass-oriented that this value has not been re-evaluated. I am going against the Cleveland defence now that Haden's defence has kicked in.

What of the Eagle's offence? There can be no excuse for Vick's performance in this game. It also felt like it added to a ye\r of poor work for him. Having checked his pro-football-refernce stats I am not so sure. He will never hit the heights of two years ago but nobody had ever hit those peaks. I don't think the Eagles expected the Cleveland defence to be so good.

What I like for the Eagles is that they are less likely to under-utilise LeSean McCoy against the Ravens. Most people think of Terrell Suggs as a pass rusher but what made him special was that he was not a specialist, he also excelled against the run. I felt this was noticeable against Cincinnati where BJGE looked as good as he ever did in a Pats' uniform. This should not have been the case considering the soft fronts he was used to going up against.

There may be an opportunity here to take advantage of an Eagle's offence that underperformed against a tough defence against a Raven's team that has switched to offensively-powered from defensively-powered - hopefully without the the betting public noticing.

NFL Week 1 Review - Rams @ Lions

I am going to fully quote the week 1 article:

Rams +9 @ Lions: I fully expect the Lions to implode at some point. Tipperary's performance in the All-Ireland SF is another example of how ra-ra management does not work against organised teams. I do think now is the best time for the Lions to have this match-up as it is the healthiest they will be all season. In a dome, at home, against inexperienced opposition. When I am giving nine I feel that you should expect your team to win the game even if they concede a touchdown first. The Lions offence comes all day when it gets on top.

Take the overs.

Update: I agree with the above logic but having seen the Lions' injuries on defence I am switching to the over 45.5.

Got lucky with the change of prediction and I felt as if I got lucky with the result. On second thoughts this went over despite a goal-line pick by the Rams. Stafford threw three similar interception where I think he may have underestimated the Rams defence. I now think that Cortland Finnegan has been underrated because of his on-field antics - whereas normally such players are overrated. Janoris Jenkins also looks like a find at corner. It is very rare for a team to be able to improve at more than one cornerback slot. The Rams' defence may continue to be underrated and for this reason I am forgiving the Detroit offence.

Next up for the Rams is the Redskins and I would expect the under on Washington points because of an OR to RGIII and UR to the Rams' defence.

Next up for Detroit is the 49'ers. Since I am forgiving the offence this game and the niners could not have looked better it seems like the Detroit offence is the play.

 I do think the key in that game will be the SF OL against eh Detroit DL. Two highly-rated units and I do not know which is better. One thing I have noticed about the NFL is that when two premium units match up the one that wind disproportionally affects the outcome of the game. I think this is because teams game plan around their strength. When this fails their gameplan is left in tatters.

Bridge Auction Esoterica

I was surprised to find out that the total number of possible bridge auctions is greater than the total possible number of bridge hands by a factor that is an order of magnitude of 18 - metaphorically this blew my mind.

The total number of bridge auctions is 128,745,650,347,030,683,120,231,926,111,608,371363,122,697,557 - and I had to take a break whilst typing it.

The estimate for grains of sand on earth is 10^20-10^24. Therefore the total number of bridge auctions is likely greater than the square of the number of grains of sands on the planet.

The extra auctions got me thinking that it might be possible to show where every card in the deck is. My first idea was that the cheapest possible bid would deny possession of a card. Start with the two of clubs then the three .... then diamonds, hearts, and spades.* Note that only three actions are needed to determine the location of each card.

* Suit rank goes in aplhabetical order for those unfamiliar with bridge.

The auction would go like this:

Preventing Linesman Syndrome

On John D. Cook's blog The Endeavour he writes about an excerpt from Malcolm Gladwell's Outliers that says that commercial airline crashes are more likely to happen when the more senior pilot is in charge. This seems counter-intuitive but it is because it is difficult for the person with less experience to point out someone more senior's error.

In commercial airlines, captains and first officers split the flying duties equally. But historically, crashes have been far more likely to happen when the captain is in the “flying seat.” At first this seems to make no sense, since the captain is almost always the pilot with the most experience. … Planes are safer when the least experienced pilot is flying, because it means the second pilot isn’t going to be afraid to speak up.

He gives an example of how German aerospace company DLR have leveraged this knowledge. They write software using pair programming where the junior programmer writes code and the senior programmer picks it apart.

What it made me think of is how referee's assistants* in soccer rarely got involved in soccer and how the the new officials behind the goal often don't. I think the addition of a fourth official, which would often be the most experienced referee may have helped in a way similar to the above to help referee's assistants get more involved.

* I had to google this. I really don't watch much soccer.

Nfl Week 1

Seriously under-prepared - despite the software at my disposal - so these are just quick hits.

Rams +9 @ Lions: I fully expect the Lions to implode at some point. Tipperary's performance in the All-Ireland SF is another example of how ra-ra management does not work against organised teams. I do think now is the best time for the Lions to have this match-up as it is the healthiest they will be all season. In a dome, at home, against inexperienced opposition. When I am giving nine I feel that you should expect your team to win the game even if they concede a touchdown first. The Lions offence comes all day when it gets on top.

Take the overs.

Update: I agree with the above logic but having seen the Lions' injuries on defence I am switching to the over 45.5.

Eagles -9.5 @ Cleveland: My initial reaction was that I do not want to back against either of these teams. I thought the Eagle's situation was a mess last year but they have a history of strong coaching before that. I see the Eagles as being similar to a team that have massively upgraded their coach  Also the Cleveland situation has been over hyped with a strong overreaction to the Brandon Weeden pick. Then I remembered there that we have a rookie QB going against a strong defensive line. This is a positive when taking large points as you are as likely to increase your lead in the fourth quarter as give away a garbage time score because the opposition must now play into your strength and their weakness. I was wary because 10-point defeats at home do not feel that common to me but the Browns gave up two of them in their first three home games last year. This was an aberration as they finished fourth in PA last season but they are without Phil Taylor and All-World Joe Haden for this one.

Take the Eagles but back Cleveland's defence when Taylor and Haden return.One interesting note is that you have one of the worst at coach's challenges in Reid and replacement refs.

Hugh McGann Magic

Hugh Kelsey said in his introduction to "Logical Bridge Play"

the brilliant card player achieves his results through a combination of logic and flair. And although many people may think flair plays a disproportionate part, the expert player, in fact, produces his sometimes unbelievable results almost entirely by the application of logic.

I was reminded of this when I first viewed this hand by another Hugh from the round robin of the World Mind Sport Games - which at first blush I couldn't believe he had found the correct line.



Click the NEXT button in the diagram to follow the play

I will now go through the logic that led to Hugh being the only declarer to make the contract.

Suit Combination: AKQ9 v x(x) and AK9x v Qx

The video below talks about using computers to reduce the amount of calculation in maths. An example of where this is useful would be teaching standard deviation. The formulae are imposing to students and the difference between sample standard deviation and population standard deviation is less important than getting a feel for how standard deviation works.


Still sometimes it is important to understand how the gears work.

I was looking through the Suit Combinations missing 1 point on Bridge Guy's and felt that some of their answers were off so I decided to check them myself.

I ran the first example by hand before turning it over to Richard Pavlicek's Card-Combination Analyzer.

AKQ9 v x : 

BridgeGuys: Finesse the 9 which works 6% of the time.

Drop:

• JTx: 5-3 split is 47.1, 12/112 comb -> 5.05%
• JT: 6-2 split is 17.1, 2/56 comb -> 0.61
• Total: 5.66%

Finesse: theoretically 0%  and JT onside in any combination is obviously 24% ( 1/2*12/25).

• JT onside: 0.3%
• JTx onside: 2.52%
• JTxx onside: 32.7 * 15/70 -> 7.01%
• JTxxx onside: 41.7 * 20/112 -> 8.41%
• JTxxxx onside: 17.1 * 15/56 -> 4.58%
• JTxxxxx onside: 2.9 * 6/16 -> 1.09%
• JTxxxxxx onside: 0.08 but 0% if AKQ9 in dummy
• Total: 23.99%

Reaching For The Moon

I think most people will remember this mixed metaphor:

Reach for the moon and even if you fail you will be among the stars.

I remember when Houllier quoted it as the moment I realised the shine had come off. But maybe there is some sense to it. What if it means that if you overreach you may be burned up - meaning you may fail more spectacularly than if you had never tried to succeed at all.

In the the 2005 French 2000 Guineas Shamardal was considered a lucky winner over David Wachman's Indesatchel. Many experts felt that that Shamardal, despite starting as favourite, had been flattered by his win. It was felt that those who raced up with the pace had an advantage and if Indesatchel had been one of those he could have won. The Racing post offered the following comment:

Even Shamardal´s most ardent supporters would have to spare a thought for Indesatchel, for whom this was a Classic that got away. In a race in which the draw was more than a little important, Jamie Spencer had no option from his wide berth but to bring the always held-up Greenham winner across to the inside rail. This he did, and though the Irish colt enjoyed a smooth passage, he also found himself having to make up acres of ground just toget to Shamardal. Having done so, he did not have quite enough energy left to go past. Much better at three than he was at two, he was the only horse among the first four to come from off the pace and can now be called a genuine Group 1 performer. 

A month later Shamardal followed up with a win in the French Derby in similar fashion over the future Arc-winner Hurricane Run. This led to the moneyball-type thinking that Shamardal would be under priced in the St. James' Palace. Indeed, most pundits were touting Indesatchel in the run up to the race - all he would have to do was prevent Shamardal from getting an easy lead.

It is likely that people saw a horse who had been fortunate to win two races and he was not likely to get lucky a third time. This would have been fair comment if the races had been against the similar horses over a similar distance. There were two things wrong with that analysis:

First is that if Shamardal had truly stolen the French 2000 Guineas then it would suggest that he would be better over shorter distances.Stepping up and winning over the longer distance showed that he would prefer a stronger pace over a mile.

Secondly, and I only noticed this when reviewing the races, by beating France's best 3-year-old milers and France's best 3-year-old middle-distance horse he had significantly reduced his odds of not having faced a very good horse. This form of one of the races was very likely to hold up. In this case it was the Derby and the 2000 Guineas turned out to be a very poor race.

So what happened?

Some Semi-Interesting Shakespeare Stuff

I was recently watching Simon Schama' s Shakespeare which contained the following interesting nugget: James I's mother, Mary Queen of Scots, married the man who was suspected of killing his father.

This means that when the play scene in Hamlet was being performed at court there was a King, whose mother had married the man who had murdered his father, watching a play about a King who had married the widow of a man he had murdered watching a play about King that married the widow of the man he had murdered. Very meta as the kids seem to be saying these days.

Quasi-interesting is that James I married the princess Anne of Denmark and honeymooned in Castle Elsinore where he also met Tycho Brahe's moustache.

James I sponsored the English translation of the bible which bears his name: the King James' Bible. The bible was released in 1611. Shakespeare was born in 1564 which means that he may have been 46 when the bible was released. The 46th word in psalm 46 is shake and the 46th word from the end of psalm 46 is spear.

Shakespeare's birth is celebrated on April 23rd even though the actual date is not known. This is also the day he died and St. George's Day.

Until recently I thought that the quote about the base Indian who threw away a pearl richer than all his tribe was referring to Kino in John Steinbeck's 'The Pearl'. It is actually from a magnificent soliloquy by Othello:

VAK Learning Styles: An Argument Against and For

I am not sure how many people have heard of the VAK Learning Styles. The general gist is that people have a preferred learning style: Visual, Auditory, or Kinaesthetic. In theory, when somebody learns they will do better in their preferred style they will do better than if they had used one of the other styles.


When I first read of this, I felt that there was something not quite right with this theory. My worry was with the concept of pareidolia, which is the psychological phenomenon that causes us to see human faces in pieces of burnt toast. From an evolutionary standpoint this is very important. There is a low cost to of seeing a pattern that is not there, for example, thinking you saw a sabre-tooth tiger in some nearby bushes. Compare this to the high cost of not seeing a sabre-tooth tiger that is in the bushes. Thus humans are excellent pattern matchers and I am presuming that this stems from excellent visual skills.


My analogy being that I might prefer walking to running but I will get to my destination sooner if I run.

Getting Data From Flash Files with Transform SWF (Part 2)

When we left in Part 1 we had figured out how to get the statistics when both sides were non-zero. Since we have eliminated all avenues in DefineTextField and there is nothing suitable in TextSettings, we will begin to explore DefineMorphShape. I begin this by outputting DefineMorphShape.toString(), which gives a very long result. I do, however, notice a mention of a start colour. I check for red and blue:

• red -> fillStyles=[MorphSolidFill: { start=Color: { red=92; green=49; blue=13; alpha=255}
• blue -> fillStyles=[MorphSolidFill: { start=Color: { red=18; green=77; blue=127; alpha=255}

I will now intersperse 'red' and 'blue' into the output of the previous method

private static void printDefineTextFieldsAndDefineMorphShape(final List<movietag> objects) {

  for(MovieTag object : objects){
    if (object instanceof DefineTextField) {
    DefineTextField d = (DefineTextField) object;
    String initialText = removeHtmlTags(d.getInitialText());

    if (Character.isDigit(initialText.charAt(0))){
      System.out.print(initialText + " ");
    } else {
      System.out.print("\n" + initialText + " "); 
    }

  }
   
 if (object instanceof DefineMorphShape){
   DefineMorphShape dms = (DefineMorphShape)object;
   MorphSolidFill fill = (MorphSolidFill)dms.getFillStyles().get(0);
   String colour = "unknown";
    
   if (fill.getEndColor().getBlue() == 13){
     colour = "red";
   }
    
   if (fill.getEndColor().getBlue() == 127){
     colour = "blue";
   }
   
   System.out.print(colour + "-");
 }

This produces the following output:

Getting Data From Flash Files with Transform SWF (Part 1)

The mission that I chose to accept was to get the above statistics from a .swf file. The coloured blocks represent percentage of the total i.e. the blue block in shots is 33% of max length because that team had 1/3 of all shots. As the title gives away, I will be using Transform SWF from Flagstone Software - this seemed like the best option from what I found by searching Google/Stack Overflow.

Transform SWF provides a small cookbook of examples using the software. The most relevant of these seemed to be find the number of frames in a movie. The example calls a movie's getObjects() method and checks for instances of Showframe. I modified this to call getClass() on each object and place the Class in a Set. Then I printed this out so that I could see which classes I needed to learn about.

private static void printDifferentTypesOfClasses(final List<movietag> objects) {

  Set<Class> classes = new HashSet<>();
  
  for(MovieTag movieTag : objects){
   classes.add(movieTag.getClass());
  }
  
  for (Class c: classes){
   System.out.println(c);
  }
  
}

This provides the following output:

Informal Problem Solving

One thing I enjoy reading is when problems are solved by common sense rather then brute force. One example is from the Sabermetric Research Blog in a post titled 'Why 10 runs equals 1 win'. The point to realise is that an extra run are added at random. It may come up when down one in the bottom of the ninth but, equally, it may come when up six in the ninth.

The only time the extra run matters is when a team lost by one or went to extra innings.

When a team lost by one the extra run brings them to extra innings where they have a 50% chance of winning. Since 22.5% of games are decided by one run, 11.3% of the time the extra run goes to the team that lost and that converts to  an a win 5.6 of the time - or 0.56 wins.

9% of games go to extra innings. If you add a run to one of those teams then they win the game - but they would have won half of them anyway. So the extra run matters 4.5% of the time and that converts to 0.45 wins.

0.56 wins + 0.45wins = 1.01 wins (Remember your denominonsense).

A more recent example that I have seen of good critical thinking is from the book 'Fifty Challenging Problems in Probability with Solutions' by Frederick Mosteller. In question 6, Chuck-a-Luck, he poses the following question:

How would you approach it?

Leading Zeros (Updated)

Earlier this year I was helping a student with a decimal problem where he was struggling with the idea of dropping a trailing zero. I mentioned that after any decimal you could write an infinite number of zeros without changing the meaning of the number. I then blurted out that you could also add an infinite amount of zeros before any number greater than one* without changing the meaning of that number. I am not sure I had ever thought of this before. I call this lazy knowledge: you don't actually know it but it is so obvious that you will figure it out as soon as you bother to think about it.

* Obviously this can be applied to numbers less than -1 as well.


This realisation stood to me recently when I was trying to figure out the number of times a digit would have appeared between 0 and n. My first step was to calculate how many digits there are in total between 0 and 99: 10 * 1 + 90 * 2 = 190. That would mean that each digit appears 19 times. When I calculated this for a specific digit though I realised that it should be twenty. Each number appears 10 times in the unit column and ten times in the tens column - for two that would be the ten numbers from 20-29. I had forgotten the leading 0. 0-9 should have been 00-99 - or if I was working with a three-digit number 000-009.

Once I made this observation a pattern began to emerge:

Eating Null Pointer Exceptions and Having The Unabomber

One common cause of a NullPointerException is calling the equals method on a string. For example, word.equals("word"); If word is null, an exception is thrown. A clever trick to avoid this is to reverse the order of the comparison by calling the following: "word".equals(word); Since the string literal "word" is guaranteed to exist, you will not generate an exception.

Second time I have used this clip.

Basketball Facts

Went to a table quiz last night and missed out by one point. We were outdone by the following question: What is 12 in London, 10 in New York, and 40 in Rome? Our first thought was clothing but one of our team members was adamant that a 10 in London would be a 6 in New York. She was right and wrong: dresses and suits have a difference of four but clothing only has a difference of two. We went with shoe size after my suggestion of bishops received no love.

Anyway, since the event was for a basketball team, I did some prep work* on basketball and learned a few interesting facts.

* My favourite prep work story is from a volleyball quiz where a friend had found out that USA was both Olympic and World Champions. When the quiz master announced that the next question was a volleyball question, he presumptuously wrote down the answer. The question? Who are the European Volleyball Champions.

Nfl Match Reports to Pdf

This program is similar to my Races To Pdf program. When you run it you get the following screen: 

You choose the teams you want in the PDF and click on the 'Create Pdf' button. If you would like to relive the Tebow roller coaster, you can download a sample for the Broncos season here.

You can download the jar file from here. Below are the instructions for running a jar file.

Fascinating Mini-Tournament

I played a tournament on BBO the other night that, despite only lasting six hands, brought up some interesting hands.

On Board 1 our opponents bid to a cold 5♦ that left us looking to hold it to 11 trick to break even.

For the five diamond bid I expected dummy to hit with values in clubs (otherwise bid a major or look for 3NT). I led off with a low ♣ running the risk of losing tricks in the majors. However, this is matchpoints and if I picked the wrong major it could be just as bad. I led low to give the impression of an honour but, unfortunately, declarer had no decision to make.  Declarer ruffed a heart to lead a trump and partner took their A♦. If they had ducked this, another trump lead would have given them an opportunity for the Days-Of-Thunder play: leading back a club to prematurely cut declarer off from dummy.

On board two partner opened 2NT on an 18-count and went down 3 vulnerable.

My Brain Used To Hurt

This screenshot is taken from a match in the European Championships. When I started reading the names, starting with South and going anti-clockwise around the table, the flags distracted me a few times. I was wondering if this was due to* the similarity of the flags making my brain assume that they were the same but then being jarred when it realised that this was not quite true. However, when I look at this image now it does not have the same effect on me as I now look directly at each flag first - and thus do not allow my brain to fill in the gaps.

*  Sorry Morse

In some ways this reminds me of the chart below. I think it is difficult for people to do because we have been trained to read words and ignore colour (except possibly for added information such as red for danger). Firstly, I think this would be an easy game for someone who could not read but knew the colours. Secondly, I have done it three times and done better each time. It can take a while to undo the habits of a lifetime (I spread my three goes over 20 minutes), but it can be done.

Heat-Thunder and Knuckleballs

The art of the knuckleball, explained more fully in this Washington Post article, is to throw the ball so that it has at most one revolution before arriving at the batter. The lack of spin on the ball enables it to take advantage of turbulence. Because the turbulence will take the ball in a random direction, it makes the knuckleball a very effective pitch when executed successfully. What makes the knuckleball so difficult is that if you get more than one revolution then you are throwing a very easy pitch to hit - a slow, straight fastball (like cricket, movement is king).

To have a good expected value for the knuckleball then one must have a high expected frequency of throwing a knuckleball.

Back in 2010 Red-Sox flame thrower Daniel Bard, who was top five in average fast ball velocity, performed far better when following Knucleballer Tim Wakefield. This is because Wakefield threw a very slow knuckleball. The change in speed, going from the slowest pitch in MLB to one of the fastest, improved the efficacy of Bard's repertoire. Proof of how effective the change of speed is: the most valuable fastball in 2009 belonged to Tim Wakefield.

Just something to think of before game one of the NBA finals.

I Am Not Impressed With This Slime Mold

In the following video you can see a single-cell slime mold create a network between lumps of food. A large lump is used to represent Tokyo and then smaller lumps are then placed around it to represent the cities around Tokyo. The slime mold creates a network for passing the food around that according to the documentary's presenter is both 'absolutely identical' to the Tokyo rail system and more efficient*.  We also later see the slime mold 'do' the motorways in Britain, the best routes around Spain, some alternates to Route 66, and 'control' a robot..

* I would think that anyone praising Tokyo's efficiency is more to deal with the number of passengers it serves. What is the point of this comparison.


So why am I not impressed?

Bank-Holiday Rule-Change Monday

This idea comes from Fangraph's "Rule Change Friday", an idea to promote discussion on potential rule changes in baseball. I thought this would be good to apply to football. It seems like there has been a lot of controversy recently. So we have a guest blogger, David Weadick, who is not happy with the 2005 changes to the offside rule. I do like to provide balance so here is an article from the Guardian praising those changes for enabling Barcelona and Spain's recent dominance.

Enjoy!

Context Searches In Google

I have put up a page for the more straight-forward Google tips that I will keep updating. In this post I want to talk about some search tips that may help you find what you are looking for.

What can I do with Twitter?


The image on the right is a use case diagram. In software engineering it is a high-level view of a system. The diagram on the right appears to be for an eBay-like system. We can leverage this knowledge whenever we are trying to find out ways to use a particular product. So for any of you who continue to dismiss the value of twitter, try searching for "twitter use cases".

Who Is Famous For Their Dots and Dashes?

Image via Wikipedia

Obviously, the first person you think of is Samuel Morse. What if I had asked, "Which artist is famous for their dots and dashes?" This was asked in a recent quiz I attended. One friend argued Morse would be the answer - and I agreed with his logic. The answer, however, was given as Jackson Pollack. But my friend would be vindicated because, as it turns out, Morse was indeed an artist*.  This gave me the idea to summarize the best questions, I can remember, from 2011.

*He was spurred to invent a faster mode of communication  when he received a too-late-communiqué that simply read "Your dear wife is convalescent". When he arrived home she had already benn buried.

You Never Get A Second Chance To Make A First Impression

For me, the above is a truism for two reasons:

1. You never get a second chance to make a second impression or third impression or fourth impression ..
2. You can change someone's perception of that first impression

It is all moot as what happens last is more important than what happens first. My first English teacher thought me this with an example from a debate. A student he had coached finished with,

"Agreeing with this would be like a turkey voting for Christmas. If you were a turkey, would you vote for Christmas?"

A powerful argument. I was reminded of this when I came across a clip of Gordon Banks's save from Edison Arantes do Nascimento, a poor peasant boy from Brazil*. The clip, which is after the jump, contains what may be the greatest pass in football history but it is largely forgotten because of the play that follows it. Careful, it is right at the beginning of the clip.


*  A hint as to the providence of the version of the clip I watched.

Another Everything-Is-Okay Block (This Is Not A Repeat)

The following hand is from the Terence Reese book 'The Most Puzzling Situations in Bridge'. We should all be familiar with the technique by now - from here and two more here.





West leads the K♥ against your 6♦. You have 11 tricks if the spades are breaking and a heart ruff will see you home. What if the spades are not breaking? Then you will have to bank on the ruffing finesse in clubs. To keep yor options open, draw trumps and play K♠ then A♠. You have 4♠+1♥+5♦+1♣ + 1 ruff = 12 tricks.

Geoff Shreeves vs Twitter

When I came home from bridge on Tuesday night Twitter was aflutter over remarks made by Geoff Shreeves to Islanovic during the post-match interview. Here is a video clip mixing it with The Simpsons' episode where Lisa dates Ralph:



Quotes after the jump:

Beccome A Stealth Mountain Acolyte

According to Buzzfeed, Stealth Mountain is the Twitter account that is doing God's work. It is simply an account that finds people on Twitter using the phrase "sneak peak" and then tweets at them, "I think you meant 'sneak peak'". That is all he tweets; the timeline is a continuous stream of that one phrase aimed at different users. The humour in the account is how people react to it. Expletive-laden responses encourage the tweeter to get a life. It must take a lot of patience from a very lonely person to run such an account. Or does it?

Also doing God's work

Introducing The Alot

Occasionally I will type 'alot' instead of 'a lot'. When I notice this, I smile and think of this article from the 'Hyperbole and a Half' blog*. In it she offers advice for dealing with the anguish caused by the poor grammar of internet commenters. Her best one centres on the mythical creature the Alot. Everytime she sees the word 'alot' used she imagines they are talking about a real creature - as seen on the right.


* My spell checker is underlining 'blog' and offering me 'biog', which is apparently informal for biography instead. That is a new one for me. Who uses 'biog'? What's wrong with 'bio'?


One that I find difficult to explain why it is funny is is the Spaghatta Nadle. I do not know why I find it funny.  It is silly, it is stupid, but it made me laugh out load.

Draw Analyzer With Line Chart

Changed the Draw Analyzer to have a line chart instead of a bar chart.

I feel that this is easier to follow. The next step will be to combine this with Races To PDF to get an overview of a particular course-distance.

Orange Kangaroo From Denmark

This is a simple trick that many people know at this stage. You ask someone to pick a number and ask them to perform a series of arithmetic steps to that number. The trick is set up so that they will always have four as their answer. The next step is to for a European country that begins with the letter that is equivalent to the number you have chosen (a=1 ..).

Now they should be thinking of Denmark and you request an animal that begins with the last letter from that country's name. This will normally be a kangaroo and from there you ask for a colour beginning with the final letter of that word. Noy you can proclaim, "Ah come on! There are no orange kangaroos in Denmark".

Going four->Denmark->kangaroo->orange is simple enough, but how do we make sure that every time out we turn there number into four? You have done it hundreds of times before.

Be Careful With Superlatives

I love watching SportsCenter commercials on ESPN so I was delighted to stumble across the following video:



So what do you call the next video when you realise that you have left some out?

The New Big Five (or Six)

Back in 2003 Liverpool were coming off the mini treble and a second-place finish in the Premier league with a record number of points. Optimism was high and I came up with "The Big Five": Gerard (Houllier) Gerrard Owen Hyypia Vignal

I recently came accross the Online Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences and so I put in the above numbers.

Not recalling Hyypia's number, I entered 10, 17, and 27 as a sequence and immediately realised I had missed a trick. The preceding numbers are the third-to-fifth numbers of a Fibonacci sequence beginning with three and seven. This would have meant having Abel Xavier and Harry Kewell in "The Big Five" but I think the tradeoff is worth it.

Next I loaded up the current squad page to see if there were any Fibonacci sequences lurking in there. This is what I came up with:

• 3 Enrique
• 5 Agger
• 8 Gerrard
• 13 ----------
• 21 Lucas
• 34 Kelly

This looks pretty good to me. Just sign a world-class no. 13 and call it a day.

This Used To Be My Bread And Butter ..

.. but then the walls got their act together.

1:35 Doncaster April 1st

John "Milton" Keyes

Analysed my first race of the year last night. It was a Class 5, 0-70, amateur-riders race over 12f on good ground. I saw eight horses with significant chances and they filled the first five and six of the first seven. I am not sure if this is a good think as this early in the season I like to use the John Maynard Keynes line:

When the facts change, I change my mind. 

Perhaps, with so much more all-weather racing than when I last followed horse racing. the early season is less of a minefield as to which horses will be fit.

The result can be found here. Analysis is after the jump.

Mi C.A.S.A es Su C.A.S.A,

The Central Asian Stan Arch could be said to be T.U.K.K.T between Russia and the Caspian Sea. Following the arch from left-to-right passes through:

• Turkmenistan
• Uzbekistan
• Kazakstan
• Kyrgyztan
• Tajikistan

The capital cities can then be remembered by 'Apathetic Terrorist Are Buying Doves'. This gives the following:

• Ashgabat
• Tashkent
• Almaty
• Bishkek
• Dushanbe